对于一个女人来说，这似乎有点过分–除了跳出来与其他20国集团（G20）俱乐部成员见面，搞砸节省欧元并进行全国运动之外–正在忙于统治国家。另外：他看起来不那么精简自己的海报：所以我想知道，只是想知道CDU总部有能力的人是否提出了一些Photoshop模板，供求职者从某些内部服务器下载。顺便说说，“Gemeinsam” means “together”. Is that the 基民盟’对SPD的回应’s ingenious “It’s the ‘we’ that matters”或不是那么含蓄的讽刺标记？只是问问而已。
A year ago, the 海盗 looked set to enter parliament, and in March, the newly founded eurosceptic AfD began to make waves. 的 model lumps these and all smaller parties 一起 in a single “other”类别，因为在过去的八个月中，没有人对百分之五或以上的投票。
只是为了好玩，我将40％的“other” votes into support for a single party, which seems generous (there are about 30 其他 parties, most of them tiny). 的 chance of such a party to overcome the electoral hurdle is 0.5 per cent. However, 如果 较小的一个政党确实确实进入了议会，几乎可以肯定会迫使一个大联盟。
Once we make this leap of faith, the probability of a return to a 红绿色 coalition is approximately zero. Amongst 10000 simulations of week 38/39 (the election is on a Sunday), there is 不 a single one that gives a parliamentary majority to this prospective coalition.
Put differently, the probability of a 红-红-绿 coalition (SPD, 剩下, 青菜) is between 22 per cent (no 贷款表决s for FDP) and 10 per cent (loan vote strategy works perfectly). But even 如果 there was a majority for the three opposition parties, a coalition (or rather a toleration arrangement 与 the 剩下) would be highly unlikely (say p=0.1), making a Grand Coalition led by the 基民盟 the default option. That again means that the probability of any government 不 being headed by the present chancellor is between one and two per cent (down from four per cent last week).
In my very occasional series on odd 运动 海报 (are there any 其他s?), here is a particularly fine specimen from Bavaria. 的 拜仁帕泰 have their eyes set on (drumroll) Bavarian independence. 的ir decline began in the 1950s, and they have 不 been represented in parliament since the 1960s. But that does 不 distract them from fielding candidates for the upcoming state election, which will be held on 九月tember 15, a week before the 联邦议院 election. 的y also have 包括Boarisch在内的18种不同语言的维基百科页面，巴伐利亚方言。嘿，他们甚至会做QR码。
In reality, a sufficient number of potentially 基民盟 voters might support the FDP for tactical reasons, pushing up that number towards certainty. But the coalition 可以 come to an end even 如果 that manoeuvre succeeds: 的 odds that the coalition garners more votes than the three left parties 一起 are only slightly better than even at 58 per cent.
A “Red-Red-Green” coalition (or rather a 红绿色 government tolerated by the 剩下), however, seems politically infeasible, suggesting a return to a Great Coalition lead by Angela M. 与 a subjective probability of at least 90 per cent.
